Robert Hampton

Saddest news in ages came earlier this week with the death of Charles Kennedy. For anyone to die at just 55 is a tragedy, but for one so talented and respected, it’s just awful.

From the first time I could vote, until 2010, I supported the Liberal Democrats. This was in large part thanks to Charles Kennedy’s stewardship of the party and the high opinion I had of him. I wasn’t the only one who felt that way; in the 2005 General Election the Lib Dems won 62 seats, their best ever result (and a figure they’re unlikely to see again in the foreseeable future).

Kennedy was nicknamed “Chat Show Charlie” and mocked for regularly taking part in Have I Got News For You. However, he always came across well in his TV appearances, showing a quick wit and ability to laugh at himself that few other politicians seemed to have. In fact, wherever he spoke, in the House of Commons and elsewhere, he always demonstrated an ability to connect with ordinary people, communicating effectively without relying to soundbites or slogans. It’s an ability few MPs today are able to demonstrate, and one they would be advised to learn.

He led his party in taking a principled stance against the Iraq war in 2003, representing the views of the majority of British people. In 2010 he warned the Liberal Democrats against going into coalition with the Tories. On both these matters, he was completely right.

It’s terribly sad that he had his career, and his life, cut short. Listen to the glowing tributes that have been dished out from all sides of the political spectrum, and from many people outside the world of politics. Are there many (or indeed, any) other figures on the current political scene who would inspire those sorts of comments? Will people be lining up to pay tribute to Cameron, Blair or Clegg when they pop their clogs?

I should have listened to Ian:-

I've got the #electionfear.

— Ian Jones (@metro_land) May 7, 2015

He was worried about “shy Tories”. I tried to stay calm and confident. Thursday evening the polls were neck and neck and it looked as though Labour, even if it wasn’t the biggest party, had enough votes to lock the Tories out.

And yet… I had a nagging feeling that all wasn’t well.

Then the exit poll came out, and hope dissipated:-

#GE2015 projections http://t.co/jpy6wse1Rp #Conservative 316 #Labour 239 #SNP 58 #LibDems 10 #Plaid15 4 #UKIP 2 #Greens 2 Others 19

— BBC Breaking News (@BBCBreaking) May 7, 2015

Labour figures were duly wheeled on screen to tell Andrew Neil that the exit poll didn’t square with their experience in constituencies across the UK. However, once the results started to come in, it became clear that, if anything, the Tory vote had been underestimated.

This wasn’t how it was supposed to be. I was looking forward to the wrangling of a hung Parliament and the promised “anti-Tory bloc”. I had little meme GIFs ready to go.

I continued tweeting out the odd daft joke, fuelled by an unholy combination of coffee and Pepsi Max. I finally gave up just after Sheffield Hallam declared, with Nick Clegg just hanging on to his seat. A few crumbs came in the form of Esther McVey and George Galloway losing their seats, and Nigel Farage failing to take Thanet South. Really though, Thursday night can’t be viewed as anything other than a disaster.

Through it all, I felt numb. It was only this morning when Ed Miliband announced his resignation, that it finally hit home what had happened. The Tories, now with a majority, and the freedom to push through all their crazy ideas.

Say goodbye to the Human Rights Act, the European Union and the NHS. Say hello to the Snoopers Charter and (probably) water cannon on the streets. Savage cuts to welfare, council services and the BBC are all in the pipeline. All the progress made during Labour’s 13 years in government – gone.

Perhaps the worst thing is that this represents a victory for the old establishment. Rupert Murdoch, Paul Dacre, the Barclay Brothers – this is the result they wanted.

I don’t mind admitting that I cried a little bit. I’m genuinely scared for the future. The next five years are going to be difficult for anyone on the left. The best we can hope for is that Labour regroups quickly, as it did after 1992. Meanwhile, I’m considering moving to Scotland… or Berlin (subject to EU free movement rules of course).

Note: this post is quite long. I’ve tried to rewrite it a couple of times, and each time it still ends up quite rambling. It doesn’t say all I want to say; for example, it barely mentions the Greens (which I’m not happy about) or UKIP (which I am much less unhappy about). But voting takes place tomorrow, so I’ve more or less run out of time to say anything about the election. On the basis that the text below probably makes about as much sense as any other comment on this unusual and unpredictable election, I’m posting it as-is.

TLDR: Labour aren’t perfect, but Ed Miliband as PM is the best possible outcome.

Opinion polls are rubbish. Seriously.

During this campaign we have seen two or three new opinion polls released each day. Generally, one shows a slight Labour lead, and Labour supporters get excited for a couple of hours, until a different poll comes out showing the Tories a couple of points ahead. Average them all out and both parties are in a dead heat. In fact, the polls have barely moved since the start of the campaign on 30th March.

Politicians are fond of saying that the only poll that matters is the one on election day, and they’re probably right this time. We could easily see a rerun of 1992 when the polling got the election result spectacularly wrong. On the other hand, the polls could be right, and both Labour and the Conservatives could end up more or less level in terms of seats.

(As an aside, my friend Ian Jones’s UK General Election blog is an excellent source for number-crunching and statistics)

In short, we are going into Thursday’s election with no definite idea of what the result will be. Lots of commentators are saying it is the most exciting election in living memory. Yes, it’s exciting – the same way I’d be excited if I didn’t know whether my birthday present was a gold watch or a lump of dog shit. If this election goes the wrong way and the Tories somehow get back in, I think it would be a disaster for the country.

Read the rest of this post »

I have been following the election campaign, but I’ve also been snowed under with Open University study (note to any potential students: doing three modules at once is not a good idea) so I’ve had little time to blog. The occasional snarky comment on Twitter is the best you can hope for from me at the moment.

It’s a close race. Today, one opinion poll puts Labour three points in front while another puts the Tories four points ahead. Two-and-a-half weeks to go until polling day and it’s all to play for.

Please make sure you are registered. The Government changed the way voters register, which has resulted in an estimated 800,000 people going “missing” from the electoral register. The deadline is TOMORROW (20th April) so it’s important to get it done now. Go to www.gov.uk/register-to-vote to register. It takes only a few minutes. It helps if you have your NI Number handy, but not necessary.

It’s nonsense to say that “they’re all the same, there’s no point”. Please don’t be seduced by the likes of Russell Brand; failing to vote is not some high-minded protest against a bourgeois elite, it will simply deny you a voice. Spoil your ballot if you must, but at least make the effort to make a mark on the paper. Vote for whoever you like. Vote for UKIP, if you must (please don’t vote UKIP). But please vote.

Here endeth the sermon. I’m off to read some more about Deterministic Turing Machines.

Grim news today, so to cheer us up, let’s watch David Cameron getting heckled mercilessly by some plucky pensioners at an AgeUK rally:

By 90 seconds in he’s reduced to begging the crowd not to boo. Cameron strikes me as the sort of person who doesn’t like being contradicted and doesn’t quite know how to handle it. No wonder he didn’t want to do the debates.

Lovely piece following Ed Miliband on the campaign trail, revealing a side to the Labour leader which is seldom seen in interviews. Here, he comes across as an ordinary, personable, passionate man. If decency and integrity were enough to win an election, he would walk it.

Not a big fan of crowdfunding-type things, but this one caught my eye:-

‘I am an immigrant’ poster campaign is a response to the increased anti-immigration rhetoric occurring in politics and the need to shed positive light on immigrants and the social, economic and cultural prosperity they bring to the nation.

The poster campaign emerged out of the Movement Against Xenophobia (MAX) which aims to rid the dialogue on immigration policy of racism and discrimination. With the 2015 General Election, the language and the rhetoric will only get worse.

The deadline to pledge is 24th February (i.e. this Tuesday). They have exceeded their original target already, but extra funding will allow them to run an even bigger campaign. In the run-up to the general election, a counterpoint to widespread anti-immigrant rhetoric is desperately needed. Head on over to crowdfunder.co.uk/i-am-an-immigrant-poster-campaign to pledge.

If anyone thought 2015 was going to be a better year than 2014, the attacks on the offices of Charlie Hebdo and elsewhere in France have surely put paid to that misplaced optimism.

World leaders gathered together in Paris in an impressive show of solidarity … then shortly afterwards started concocting new ways to impinge on our freedoms.

Cameron’s latest wheeze is to attempt to restrict the use of encrypted communications. “In our country,” he said, “do we want to allow a means of communication between people which we cannot read?”

Erm… yes? Cameron wants services such as iMessage and WhatsApp to give up their messages to the security services, but there’s a bigger picture here. Encryption, and the privacy it provides, underpins commerce on the internet. Put your credit card details into Amazon, or do some online banking, and your personal details are encrypted using an algorithm which is very difficult to break. Even social networking sites such as Facebook and Twitter default to HTTPS connections these days.

As James Ball points out in the Guardian, weakening that encryption risks damaging the digital economy. If the spooks can listen in, potentially anyone can.

It’s frankly terrifying that someone tasked with keeping the country safe is that ignorant of the way the internet works.

David Cameron has given a Christmas message:-

At this important time of year for the Christian faith I send my best wishes to everyone in the UK and around the world celebrating Christmas.

Among the joyous celebrations we will reflect on those very Christian values of giving, sharing and taking care of others. This Christmas I think we can be very proud as a country at how we honour these values through helping those in need at home and around the world.

Politicians banging on about religion almost always sounds like cynical pandering. It’s especially so when it’s David Cameron – leader of a government which has pushed many families into poverty. 90,000 children will wake up homeless on Christmas morning. Shelter reports that the number of homeless families living in B&Bs has trebled this year.

So merry Christmas, Mr Cameron. I will wait until May 2015 for the top present on my wish list – your exit from Nunmber 10.

Was Nigel Farage the UKIP candidate for Clacton? You’d think so, seeing as how it’s his grinning face staring out from the front page of every newspaper and web site. Douglas Carswell was the actual candidate, and the by-election triggered by Douglas Carswell’s resignation and defection to UKIP has resulted in a historic win for the anti-EU rabble.

UKIP is still very much a protest vote, the way the LibDems were until 2010. The shallowness of UKIP’s support was demonstrated recently, when a caller to an LBC phone-in couldn’t name any policy other than “immigration”.

Meanwhile, back in Clacton, evidence emerged that the voters were not as well-informed as they could have been:-

Inspired irony : Quote of the day from Clacton on Resident "Yes I voted UKIP the Tory MP has done nothing for years"

— david bush (@Davidbush) October 10, 2014

As it stands, Thursday will go down in history as the day when voters rebelled against old-style politics by re-electing their incumbent MP – a middle-aged white private schoolboy – to a party led by a former investment banker. Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose (if we’re permitted some French in this brave new world).